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NOVEMBER 5,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

MAJOR POLITICAL NEWS – In an event that could change world history, Sandra Fluke, the Ms. Birth Control of Georgetown University, has been defeated in her bid for a California State Senate seat.  You'll recall that Ms. Fluke, who is particularly obnoxious, became a major figure in the Democratic Party when she demanded birth-control coverage for college and graduate students.  It turned out that the $1,000 a year she was paying for the magic pills was almost three times more than the going rate at her neighborhood drugstores.  We don't know what future plans Ms. Fluke has. 

WAR ON WOMEN? – If there's one campaign slogan that flopped completely this year, it was the Dem claim that Republicans are waging a "war on women."  In fact, the gender gap narrowed considerably.  Exit polls show that that Dems won the women's vote by only five points, compared to the double-digit spreads we usually see.  Maybe women are on to the fact that the Democratic Party actually does very little for them.  If the gender gap is this narrow in 2016, the GOP has a good chance of electing a president.

VIRGINIA – The close Senate race in Virginia still has not been decided.  While most experienced observers feel that Democratic incumbent Mark Warner will pull it out, in the face of a surprisingly strong challenge by Republican Ed Gillespie, the two candidates are only one point apart.  It was supposed to be an easy Warner victory.  Here's a case where a third-party candidate may have done some real damage.  Libertarian Robert Sarvis has 2.45% of the vote.  Most of his votes would probably have gone to Gillespie. Counting is still going on.

FOXY – Fox News won election night in terms of TV viewership of the returns, but all television election viewership was down from previous years.  Interest level in the midterms was not as high as we'd thought, maybe as a result of general dismay with the state of American politics.

November 5, 2014       Permalink

HE'S NUTS, AND WE ALWAYS KNEW IT – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  From what we've heard, the White House has no intention of respecting the will of the American people.  From Breitbart: 

ABC News Chief White House Correspondent Jon Karl reported that according to WH officials “the president will move forward with an executive order on immigration reform “no matter how big a shellacking Democrats get tonight” during ABC’s Election coverage on Tuesday.

Karl said “White House officials are saying that you can expect the president to set an aggressive, and defiant tone tomorrow. You're not going to see any mea culpas, no big firings, no change in direction.”

He added “officials tell me the president is prepared to aggressively pursue his agenda using his power of executive authority, where he can't work with Congress, and the big one is going to be on immigration reform. White House officials tell me that the president will move forward with an executive order on immigration reform no matter how big a shellacking Democrats get tonight.”

COMMENT:  That's the way true believers act.  They think the world exists between their ears.  Obama has been told all his life how wonderful he is, and he's taken it seriously.

November 5, 2014       Permalink

HOW DID THEY VOTE? – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:   We're just beginning to get serious breakdowns of the vote by group.  They point to potential trouble ahead for Democrats, and opportunities, if they are taken, for Republicans.  From ABC: 

Voters who came out to cast their ballots today looked and acted a little bit different than they have in past years.

Here are the major demographic trends of the 2014 midterm elections:

Unmarried women are voting 61-37 percent for the Democrats in the House. These numbers mark a significant shift in the way unmarried women voted this year. This 24-point margin is the slimmest advantage for Democrats in this group in available data back to 1992.

White men are voting Republican 63-35 percent. This marks another significant shift, with a much larger margin of white men voting Republican than in recent elections. This ties with 2010 for the widest Republican advantage in this group in data since 1984.

Voters under age 30 are voting Democratic by a 13-point margin, 55-42 percent. This compares to 60-38 percent in 2012. Young voters’ share of the electorate is down from 19 percent in 2012 to 13 percent now.

Seniors, meanwhile, are voting Republican by 56-43 percent, and there are many more of them than young voters. This group has grown by 7 percent, making it 24 percent of the electorate is seniors, up from 17 percent in 2012.

COMMENT:  Yes, the handwriting is on the wall.  Or, rather, on the blackboard.  We are making progress, but it can be erased by Republican blundering and infighting.  Ball is now in our court.  No unforced errors, please.

November 5, 2014       Permalink

WHERE IT COUNTS – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  The Republican wave swept over the country, and even down to state legislatures.  They are important.  They draw the election maps and make the state election laws.  From John Fund at NRO: 

In addition to the GOP gains in the U.S., Senate, House and governorships it was an historic night for the party in state legislatures.

Here is the summary by Tim Storey of the National Conference of State Legislatures:

The Republican wave that swept over the states left Democrats at their weakest point in state legislatures since the 1920s.

Everything went in the direction of the GOP as Republicans seized new majorities in the West Virginia House, Nevada Assembly and Senate, New Hampshire House, Minnesota House and New York Senate, The West Virginia Senate is now tied.

Control of several legislative chambers was still up in the air early Wednesday as counting continued in several tight races that will determine control of the Colorado Senate, New Mexico House and Maine Senate.

The lone bright spot for Democrats was holding majorities in the Iowa Senate and Kentucky House.

COMMENT:  It is the depth of the GOP victory that is so stunning. 

November 5, 2014       Permalink

WHERE WERE WE?  – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  Oh, there was an election yesterday.  And there is a throne in the White House that seems awfully vacant this morning. 

There's a song from the musical, "Camelot," called "What Do the Simple Folk Do?"  Yesterday the Democratic Party learned what the simple folk do when they get angry.  They vote.  And not for Democrats.

Yesterday, we had a wave election.  As of this morning, Republicans have a certain 52 votes in the next Senate.  But wait.  Dan Sullivan is ahead of incumbent Democrat Mark Begich in Alaska, and looks headed for victory.  That would be 53.  In Louisiana, a runoff on December 6th is required because of state rules.  It's widely expected that the Republican, Bill Cassidy, will retire Mary Landrieu.  If that happens, our side will have 54.  That's a pickup of nine seats. 

In the House, Republicans also had a spectacular night.  In the new House they will have 246 seats, and their largest majority since World War II. 

A few notes about special races.  In Utah, African-American Republican Mia Love won her congressional race and will be the first African-American Republican woman to serve in Congress.  We told you last night about Elise Stefanik, who won her congressional race in upstate New York, and will be the youngest female member of Congress in American history.  And in South Carolina, Republican Tim Scott, who was appointed to the U.S. Senate to fill the unexpired term of Jim DeMint, who had resigned, won his seat outright, becoming the first African American to be elected to the U.S. Senate from a Southern state since the Civil War. 

Joni Ernst, who won the Senate seat from Iowa, becomes a national figure.  So does Susana Martinez, re-elected as governor of New Mexico.  Vice-presidential talk there.  And what about Larry Hogan, Republican, elected governor of Maryland?  And Charlie Baker, Republican, elected governor of Massachusetts?  And, Heaven forbid, Republican Bruce Rauner, elected governor of the Obaman state of Illinois? 

Pinch yourself.  It isn't a dream.

November 5,  2014     Permalink

NOVEMBER 4,  2014

GOOD NIGHT.  BE BACK IN THE MORNING.

1:25 A.M. ET:  Republican Charlie Baker has been elected governor of Massachusetts, defeating Democratic candidate Martha Coakley.  There will be Republican governors in Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts.  Can we still call them blue states?  Maybe striped would be better.

12:26 A.M.  Wonderful.  In New York's 21st Congressional District, Republican Elise Stefanik has been elected to Congress at age 30.  She will be the youngest female member of Congress in American history.  Take that, Gloria Steinem!

12:25 A.M. ET:  YIKES!  Republican Larry Hogan has won the governorship of Maryland, defeating Democratic Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown.  That's Maryland!  One of the bluest states in the nation.  I guess there just weren't enough votes in Baltimore cemeteries to turn things around.

11:52 P.M. ET:  Adding insult to injury, CNN projects that Republican Bruce Rauner will be the next governor of President Obama's home state of Illinois, defeating incumbent Pat Quinn.  Illinois may now be permitted to rejoin the Union.

11:41 P.M. ET:  CNN projects Joni Ernst has been elected to the U.S. Senate from Iowa, giving Republicans their 52nd seat in the new Senate.  She will replace retiring Democrat Tom Harkin.

11:36 P.M. ET:  HERE IT IS:  CNN IS CALLING THE NORTH CAROLINA SENATE RACE FOR REPUBLIC THOM TILLIS, WHO HAS DEFEATED INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT KAY HAGAN.  THIS GIVES REPUBLICANS CONTROL OF THE U.S. SENATE.

11:28 P.M. ET:  CNN reports that Democrat Charlie Crist has called Florida's Republican Governor Rick Scott to concede, giving Scott a second term. 

11:21 P.M. ET:  Nathan Deal has been re-elected governor of Georgia, defeating Jason Carter, grandson of Jimmy Carter, who had been governor himself before wrecking the presidency.

11:20 P.M. ET:  Susana Martinez has been re-elected governor of New Mexico.   A Hispanic woman, she is being widely mentioned as a possible vice-presidential candidate in 2016.

11:10 P.M. ET:  ANOTHER MAJOR RESULT – CNN projects that Pat Roberts will hold his Kansas Senate seat, meaning there will be no Republican turnovers tonight.  Republicans have now won five Democratic Senate seats, guaranteeing that they will have 50 seats in the new Senate.  They need one more for control, and I think they'll get it.

10:58 P.M. ET:  MAJOR:  Scott Walker has been re-elected governor of Wisconsin, making him a major presidential candidate for 2016.  He won his original race, then won a recall race, and now has been re-elected.  No governor has been targeted as viciously by the Democrats as has Scott Walker.  He has survived and deserves presidential consideration, based on his outstanding governing record.   

10:41 P.M. ET:  CNN projects Republican David Perdue will defeat Michelle Nunn, holding the endangered Republican seat being vacated by the retiring Saxby Chambliss.  That means that only one current Republican seat is in danger, and that's the Kansas seat held by Pat Roberts.  Roberts is currently ahead. 

10:26 P.M. ET:  It now appears increasingly likely that incumbent Democrat Mark Warner will squeeze out a victory in Virginia, holding on to his Senate seat.  The deciding votes will come from Fairfax County, which is heavily populated by government workers.  Virginia is one of the states where the number of government workers is so large that they can swing an election.  Another of those states is California.  I'm still hoping for a Virginia miracle, or even a miracle via recount.

10:24 P.M. ET:  Big one.  Cory Gardner has defeated incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall in Colorado, giving the GOP five pickups tonight.  They need one more to control the Senate, assuming they can hold Republican seats in Kansas and Georgia, both too close to call.  Stand by.

10:03 P.M. ET:  In the brutal Florida governorship race, incumbent Republican Rick Scott is just barely ahead of former governor Charlie Crist, who governed as a Republican, but has flipped and become a Democrat.  Scott isn't the most personable guy in the world, but he deserves re-election. 

10:02 P.M. ET:  Revisiting Virginia, where the Senate race remains incredibly tight.  Rick Gillespie is a bit less than one point ahead of incumbent Democrat Mark Warner in a race that was supposed to be a Warner coronation.  However, it does appear that Warner might well, in the end, squeeze it out.  A nailbiter and potential heartbreaker.

10:01 P.M. ET: Easy projection.  CNN projects that Republican Steve Daines has won the Montana Senate seat.  That's a GOP pickup, meaning Republicans have gained four seats thus far tonight.  Polls in Iowa have just closed.  That is a critical state.  We are looking at the good possibility that Republican Joni Ernst will give the GOP one more pickup. 

9:47 P.M. ET:  Scare avoided.  Republican Mike Rounds has won the Senate race in South Dakota.  There had been a scare for a time, with the possibility that an independent could pull out the race.  This is a turnover, meaning that Republicans have had a gain of three seats tonight.  They need a net gain of six to take control of the Senate.  However, that assumes no Republican seats are lost.  Republican seats are in possible jeopardy, however, in Kansas and Georgia.  Stand by.

9:38 P.M. ET:  Fox projects that the Louisiana Senate race will go to a runoff, meaning we will not know for weeks who wins.  The runoff will be December 6th.  This could mean that we may not know tonight who will control the Senate, depending on what happens in other states.

9:37 P.M. ET:  Fox News projects that Democrat Jeanne Shaheen will defeat Scott Brown to hold her Senate seat.  A big disappointment for us.

8:46 P.M. ET:  No new projections.  We're closely watching the remarkable Senate race in Virginia, where Ed Gillespie is doing so well against incumbent Democrat Mark Warner.  Gillespie is ahead, but the count is tightening.  And still to come in are large numbers of votes from heavily Democratic northern Virginia, where government workers make up a big chunk of the population.  Warner will probably pull it out in the end, but hope for a miracle.  At minimum, Dems get a big scare.

8:31 P.M. ET:  SECOND GOP PICKUP:  CNN projects that Tom Cotton has been elected to the U.S. Senate from Arkansas, defeating incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor.  If the projection holds, this is the second GOP Senate pickup tonight.   Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take control. 

7:55 P.M. ET:  There are no new projections to report.  The big surprise of the night – the U.S. Senate race in Virginia between incumbent Democrat Mark Warner and Republican challenger Ed Gillespie.  Warner was supposed to be the easy winner, but the race is too close to call.  I'd love to have this one.  Watch it carefully. 

Polls will close in a few minutes in a number of states, most critically New Hampshire.  We had early returns from New Hampshire a while ago, but they were mostly absentee ballots.  Returns in both Georgia and North Carolina are inconclusive.

7:34 P.M. ET:  FIRST GOP PICKUP:  Republican Shelley Moore Capito has just been elected to the Senate from West Virginia, replacing retiring Democrat Jay Rockefeller.  This is the evening's first Republican Senate pickup.

7:33 P.M. ET:  John Kasich, a possible presidential contender, has just been re-elected as governor of Ohio.  Look for a presidential "exploratory committee" to be formed.

7:28 P.M. ET:  Polls are about to close in three more states, including critical North Carolina.  Results received in the last half hour from New Hampshire and Georgia are inconclusive.

7:02 P.M. ET:  Polls have just closed in several more states, including Georgia, which is holding a critical Senate election.  The GOP is trying to hang onto the seat vacated by the retiring Saxby Chambliss.  Stand by.

7:01 P.M. ET:  A big one.  CNN projects Mitch McConnell has defeated Alison Grimes in the Kentucky Senate race, and will remain as Republican leader of the U.S. Senate.  A projection this early is unusual, and we hope it bodes well for Republicans elsewhere.

6:24 P.M. ET:  First actual results from Kentucky show Mitch McConnell with a substantial lead over Alison Grimes, but these results are from rural areas, areas of Mitch's strength.  Not considered significant at this hour.

6 P.M. ET:  I've been monitoring news outlets all afternoon and have learned virtually nothing.  There have been no major developments, no collapses of voting systems, no candidates making last-minute mistakes.  The national news networks have been repeating the same analyses they were giving all weekend.  Polls start closing at this hour so we'll have first live results.

One note:  The networks push their own "talent," the TV term for people on-camera.  Okay, I get it.  But what I really want to see in an off-year election is an army of local reporters who know the turf, who have a feeling for their states and cities.  I recall a guy named Len O'Connor, who reported for NBC in Chicago some years ago.  Whenever there was an election, and Chicago was a factor, there was Len on national TV, very rotund, white shirt crumpled, giving the best analysis on the air.  He knew the streets, he knew the people, he knew who got a traffic light and who didn't.  He knew politics.  What we're getting today is national reporters doing the national thing, and it's boring.

MIDDAY – We're well into election day, but there's nothing dramatic to report.  The Justice Department says it has inspectors in a number of states to look for discrimination against minorities, but there's no indication that the department has any interest in voter fraud.

You might note this internet address:  http://www.ibtimes.com/when-do-polls-close-poll-closing-times-state-election-day-2014-1718365

It will give you poll closing times in the states.  Please note that parts of Kentucky, where Mitch McConnell is involved in one of the most important Senate races, close at 6 p.m. eastern time.  Might be some early indications there. 

There is surprisingly little reporting thus far on turnout.  That may be because there's been so much voting in advance of election day.  It's been difficult thus far to get a handle on who is actually voting.  That may become clearer later in the day.

ELECTION DAY – AT 7:26 A.M. ET:  Urgent Agenda will not be published in the normal manner today.  Our real work begins tonight, and we'll stay with it, blogging regularly, until key races are decided.  We'll also have comments at various times during the day.  No "Short Takes" tonight.  It's all election.  If anything extraordinary happens, such as Obama doing something well, we'll break in.  It is not expected.

To begin, non-partisan analyst Charlie Cook has an excellent analysis of the Republican situation, at National Journal: 

The odds of Republicans winning a Senate majority are obviously getting very high. Indeed, it would be a real shocker if Democrats held the GOP to a net gain of five seats or less, preventing a takeover of the majority. Unresolved, however, remains the question of just how big a night Republicans will have, and in turn, how to best interpret the results. At this point, at least in the Senate, this election seems to be a whole lot about the map, with more than a little political environment, including President Obama's current unpopularity, thrown in for good measure.

If Republicans take the Senate, but their gains are limited to the six states that Mitt Romney carried by at least 14 points—open seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, along with the defeat of Mark Begich in Alaska, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, and Mary Landrieu in Louisiana (though this would not likely happen until a December 6 runoff)—that would be a good but hardly extraordinary night for the GOP. This would be a map election.

Should one of the six—namely Begich, Landrieu, or Pryor—escape defeat, that would be a bad but not fatal loss to the GOP's majority hopes. A loss in Alaska, Louisiana, or Arkansas would obviously make other outcomes in other states more important to the party. Begich, Pryor, and Landrieu have been good candidates and have all run solid campaigns. Indeed, they have each given their races all they had. Each member of this trio is analogous to strong swimmers having contended with a terrible undertow.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, in shielding these and other senators from having to cast tough votes, also prevented them from having the chance to break with President Obama on high-profile issues. As a result, each racked up what have been perceived as very high Obama support levels that were often used mercilessly in negative ads against them. Additionally, the fact that the tough challenges facing this country require tough votes meant that the Senate simply deferred dealing with (or voting on) many important issues. Longtime Washington hand Bill Sweeney reminded me of late Democratic Rep. Mike Synar's frequent line: "If you didn't want to run into burning buildings, don't be a fireman. If you don't want to take hard votes, don't be a congressman."

COMMENT:  Well said.  The whole world is watching.  We are within 20 days of the deadline for the Iran nuclear talks.  Iran will want to see whether the president's hand is strengthened or weakened by this election.   Ditto Russia.  Ditto our allies, like Israel and Japan, which are increasingly dismayed by policies coming out of Washington.

This election is a very big deal.

November 4, 2014     Permalink